{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1083dffa-3a80-49a9-94ad-17431bc1dea6", "symbol": "ICR", "name": "Intelicare Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.127, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.043, "architecture_energy": 17.332, "architecture_maturity": 18.677, "architecture_confidence": 63.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 62.41, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 42.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021467, 0.021473, 0.022438, 0.022346 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.022333, "distance_from_trend": 0.029851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.015904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.03945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1327646, "relative_activity": 0.887355, "balance": 0.315895, "dry_up": 0.71769, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080268, "annualized_volatility": 0.641764, "from_high_reference": -0.342857, "from_low_reference": 0.769231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022333, "fair_value_reference": 0.015904, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.363636, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.359717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.363636, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.636364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.633659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.636364, "worst_return": 1.636364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.011, "volume": 555613, "typical_volume": 975088.85, "trend": 0.016667, "fair_value": 0.103149, "relative_strength": -48.463891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.444368, "energy": 54.616237, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012127, 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"trend": 0.022833, "fair_value": 0.015628, "relative_strength": 0.097061, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.860486, "energy": 25.412586, "activity_lines": [ 0.022267, 0.023164, 0.023129, 0.022869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.021, "volume": 422709, "typical_volume": 2161898.4, "trend": 0.022767, "fair_value": 0.015679, "relative_strength": -4.592152, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.62115, "energy": 51.487815, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.022673, 0.022995, 0.022751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 1136051, "typical_volume": 2141798.5, "trend": 0.022667, "fair_value": 0.015724, "relative_strength": -9.509195, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.594162, "energy": 65.224935, "activity_lines": [ 0.021067, 0.022055, 0.022762, 0.022572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.018, "volume": 506825, "typical_volume": 2144975.45, "trend": 0.022433, "fair_value": 0.015763, "relative_strength": -18.532025, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.132608, "energy": 83.618543, "activity_lines": [ 0.019933, 0.021145, 0.022338, 0.022271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 1324663, "typical_volume": 1515792.85, "trend": 0.0224, "fair_value": 0.015833, "relative_strength": 0.820626, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.730846, "energy": 47.393173, "activity_lines": [ 0.020733, 0.021291, 0.0224, 0.022308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 1327646, "typical_volume": 1496184.25, "trend": 0.022333, "fair_value": 0.015904, "relative_strength": -3.03945, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.04346, "energy": 17.331973, "activity_lines": [ 0.021467, 0.021473, 0.022438, 0.022346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }