{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1086422a-a056-4d34-af7c-f61dd6aadb26", "symbol": "CDZI", "name": "Cadiz Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.213, "architecture_energy": 70.072, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.107, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 11.0, "upward_expansion": 15.66, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 67.46, "downward_expansion": 86.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.329333, 3.584545, 3.925833, 4.194527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.46, "trend_reference": 4.6195, "distance_from_trend": -0.251001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.760897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.677586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259101, "excess_performance": -0.446554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3018232, "relative_activity": 0.68416, "balance": 0.678992, "dry_up": 1.3932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190751, "annualized_volatility": 0.676486, "from_high_reference": -0.502874, "from_low_reference": 0.207679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.6195, "fair_value_reference": 3.760897, "structural_low": 2.865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.013622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046863, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.270386, "worst_return": -0.448529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.199983, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.538793, "worst_return": -0.549046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123867, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.086843, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.821306, "worst_return": -0.737057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.182898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089347, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 4028523, "typical_volume": 4104657.75, "trend": 4.790167, "fair_value": 3.772949, "relative_strength": -39.23568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.530922, "energy": 49.341813, "activity_lines": [ 3.646667, 3.850636, 4.135214, 4.390441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.99, "volume": 7975073, "typical_volume": 4383308.65, "trend": 4.6965, "fair_value": 3.765577, "relative_strength": -42.658051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.457853, "energy": 66.684372, "activity_lines": [ 3.385333, 3.663455, 4.003048, 4.274301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.46, "volume": 3018232, "typical_volume": 4411589.0, "trend": 4.6195, "fair_value": 3.760897, "relative_strength": -36.677586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.21345, "energy": 70.072401, "activity_lines": [ 3.329333, 3.584545, 3.925833, 4.194527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }