{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1086ea87-a22d-4fff-9d7d-f043be0a4103", "symbol": "RAPT3", "name": "Randoncorp S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.556, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 24.067, "architecture_energy": 32.39, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.3, "rotation_up": 47.16, "upward_expansion": 32.61, "deceleration": 50.13, "rotation_down": 19.42, "downward_expansion": 47.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.407333, 5.067455, 5.030333, 5.154753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.92, "trend_reference": 5.440333, "distance_from_trend": 0.271981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.804055, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113281, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.786054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103668, "excess_performance": 0.160717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.271981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.157861, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.456156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103668, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.286032, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 942900, "relative_activity": 8.551605, "balance": 3.286032, "dry_up": 2.865046, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06225, "annualized_volatility": 0.666471, "from_high_reference": -0.023977, "from_low_reference": 0.601852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.440333, "fair_value_reference": 7.804055, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00153, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.028518, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.101837, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028845, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028206, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.18107, "worst_return": -0.144487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068554, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023785, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.208862, "worst_return": -0.212248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048855, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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4.760667, 4.893273, 5.099952, 5.349376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.56, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 81515.0, "trend": 5.573, "fair_value": 7.93444, "relative_strength": -29.221523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.367103, "energy": 84.969734, "activity_lines": [ 4.663333, 4.812727, 5.024952, 5.280344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.7, "volume": 69800, "typical_volume": 78300.0, "trend": 5.531667, "fair_value": 7.906557, "relative_strength": -27.328328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.327864, "energy": 81.488032, "activity_lines": [ 4.648, 4.770182, 4.971619, 5.224022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.66, "volume": 35700, "typical_volume": 77985.0, "trend": 5.494667, "fair_value": 7.877546, "relative_strength": -25.02535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.253484, "energy": 73.220029, "activity_lines": [ 4.640667, 4.730545, 4.92281, 5.167785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.51, "volume": 217900, "typical_volume": 85425.0, "trend": 5.455333, "fair_value": 7.847091, "relative_strength": -26.504508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.254799, "energy": 64.735582, "activity_lines": [ 4.598667, 4.676727, 4.869333, 5.104258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 67100, "typical_volume": 80230.0, "trend": 5.422, "fair_value": 7.818645, "relative_strength": -23.387135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.204234, "energy": 48.411482, "activity_lines": [ 4.645333, 4.671636, 4.845333, 5.058108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.92, "volume": 942900, "typical_volume": 110260.0, "trend": 5.440333, "fair_value": 7.804055, "relative_strength": 15.786054, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.067194, "energy": 32.389728, "activity_lines": [ 5.407333, 5.067455, 5.030333, 5.154753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }