{ "ticker": { "uuid": "108734ce-b8b7-401c-bcb6-0e0bc6fd3d92", "symbol": "XRSS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.676, "architecture_energy": 54.017, "architecture_maturity": 81.211, "architecture_confidence": 64.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.17, "rotation_up": 47.51, "upward_expansion": 79.46, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 8.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 4894.2, 4885.318182, 4836.209524, 4732.763441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5019.0, "trend_reference": 4610.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.088543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3885.407436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291756, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.261148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150487, "excess_performance": 0.099252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022611, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.337343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115659, "relative_activity": 2.559592, "balance": 1.337343, "dry_up": 2.231751, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020739, "annualized_volatility": 0.135058, "from_high_reference": -0.14832, "from_low_reference": 0.233548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4610.75, "fair_value_reference": 3885.407436, "structural_low": 4131.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006949, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": 0.001477, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.0573, "worst_return": -0.081789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024656, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.013532, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.087233, "worst_return": -0.168394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065232, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007397, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180947, "worst_return": -0.075996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4794.5, "volume": 108472, "typical_volume": 40324.45, "trend": 4593.8, "fair_value": 3871.885, "relative_strength": -1.974824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.141528, "energy": 39.924729, "activity_lines": [ 4840.466667, 4857.854545, 4805.040476, 4705.331183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5019.0, "volume": 115659, "typical_volume": 45186.5, "trend": 4610.75, "fair_value": 3885.407436, "relative_strength": 2.261148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.675591, "energy": 54.017247, "activity_lines": [ 4894.2, 4885.318182, 4836.209524, 4732.763441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }