{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1089b06f-4282-4aa7-89c1-946fe5076373", "symbol": "DLG", "name": "De'Longhi S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.241, "architecture_energy": 75.893, "architecture_maturity": 17.774, "architecture_confidence": 80.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 72.48, "upward_expansion": 89.57, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 12.28, "downward_expansion": 16.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.039999, 39.118181, 37.469499, 36.452122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.099998, "trend_reference": 35.827307, "distance_from_trend": 0.14717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.290089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403205, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.363241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100821, "excess_performance": -0.070071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033632, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.077912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 925908, "relative_activity": 1.273745, "balance": 2.077912, "dry_up": 1.206355, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053616, "annualized_volatility": 0.379546, "from_high_reference": -0.021429, "from_low_reference": 0.504771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.827307, "fair_value_reference": 29.290089, "structural_low": 27.821099, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000953, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.0012, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.245485, "worst_return": -0.253976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003813, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.068146, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.230996, "worst_return": -0.170025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034532, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13781, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.257094, "worst_return": -0.153468, "sufficient": true }, { 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40.040001, "volume": 969264, "typical_volume": 750228.9, "trend": 35.427876, "fair_value": 28.92478, "relative_strength": 4.888736, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.515399, "energy": 68.135686, "activity_lines": [ 38.430667, 37.630728, 35.989299, 35.577248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.599998, "volume": 786970, "typical_volume": 754831.25, "trend": 35.523419, "fair_value": 29.042005, "relative_strength": 1.09555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.608823, "energy": 60.855926, "activity_lines": [ 38.609333, 37.925454, 36.36486, 35.781901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.5, "volume": 825543, "typical_volume": 757631.4, "trend": 35.688157, "fair_value": 29.165887, "relative_strength": 5.066359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.714321, "energy": 63.421674, "activity_lines": [ 39.350666, 38.516364, 36.904655, 36.102971 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.099998, "volume": 925908, "typical_volume": 726917.85, "trend": 35.827307, "fair_value": 29.290089, "relative_strength": 3.363241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.24137, "energy": 75.89301, "activity_lines": [ 40.039999, 39.118181, 37.469499, 36.452122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }