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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.481, "architecture_energy": 38.016, "architecture_maturity": 22.232, "architecture_confidence": 70.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.63, "rotation_up": 54.7, "upward_expansion": 77.53, "deceleration": 58.5, "rotation_down": 18.44, "downward_expansion": 4.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.093335, 60.780095, 59.712913, 59.074722 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.400002, "trend_reference": 58.236769, "distance_from_trend": 0.054317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 75.350805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185145, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.484605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103826, "excess_performance": -0.337546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020733, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115584, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103826, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.069851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1722117, "relative_activity": 0.570848, "balance": 3.069851, "dry_up": 0.681395, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042741, "annualized_volatility": 0.161568, "from_high_reference": -0.079636, "from_low_reference": 0.171963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.236769, "fair_value_reference": 75.350805, "structural_low": 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39.191993, "activity_lines": [ 60.820001, 60.474162, 59.269654, 58.677361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.700001, "volume": 2177457, "typical_volume": 4010017.95, "trend": 58.06582, "fair_value": 75.634565, "relative_strength": -25.732097, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.666815, "energy": 36.8708, "activity_lines": [ 60.820001, 60.607951, 59.462334, 58.859613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 1722117, "typical_volume": 3016770.2, "trend": 58.236769, "fair_value": 75.350805, "relative_strength": -26.484605, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.481161, "energy": 38.01608, "activity_lines": [ 61.093335, 60.780095, 59.712913, 59.074722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }