{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10918321-4199-4815-a041-193aee879286", "symbol": "ING", "name": "Ingenta plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.072, "architecture_energy": 64.724, "architecture_maturity": 35.091, "architecture_confidence": 93.595, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.18, "rotation_up": 19.89, "upward_expansion": 12.51, "deceleration": 47.24, "rotation_down": 65.6, "downward_expansion": 88.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.638667, 0.665727, 0.775665, 0.838715 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.675, "trend_reference": 0.911737, "distance_from_trend": -0.259655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.928486, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.306768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301919, "excess_performance": -0.353154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27301, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291159, "relative_activity": 1.617815, "balance": 0.577204, "dry_up": 1.217307, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142312, "annualized_volatility": 0.712085, "from_high_reference": -0.496673, "from_low_reference": 0.185887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.911737, "fair_value_reference": 0.928486, "structural_low": 0.5825, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.007575, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.009603, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.291412, "worst_return": -0.241808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02239, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018697, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.197489, "worst_return": -0.236111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077237, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.278819, "worst_return": -0.379661, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.472758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140047, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": 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-27.085598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.210024, "energy": 88.497247, "activity_lines": [ 0.69, 0.786342, 0.875201, 0.918114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.65, "volume": 125097, "typical_volume": 192148.85, "trend": 0.949156, "fair_value": 0.936948, "relative_strength": -28.297037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.345731, "energy": 89.060914, "activity_lines": [ 0.659, 0.74935, 0.848245, 0.898445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.61, "volume": 101072, "typical_volume": 175469.6, "trend": 0.941631, "fair_value": 0.934288, "relative_strength": -33.445836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.780359, "energy": 89.554545, "activity_lines": [ 0.633, 0.71129, 0.8201, 0.876564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.605, "volume": 358990, "typical_volume": 178471.35, "trend": 0.925031, "fair_value": 0.93112, "relative_strength": -34.657196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.742759, "energy": 87.687541, "activity_lines": [ 0.624, 0.678545, 0.793664, 0.854846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.675, "volume": 291159, "typical_volume": 179970.55, "trend": 0.911737, "fair_value": 0.928486, "relative_strength": -27.306768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.071736, "energy": 64.724054, "activity_lines": [ 0.638667, 0.665727, 0.775665, 0.838715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }