{ "ticker": { "uuid": "109214f7-428e-4c03-be34-e28610c14d71", "symbol": "LRMR", "name": "Larimar Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.465, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.843, "architecture_energy": 12.791, "architecture_maturity": 20.125, "architecture_confidence": 81.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 76.98, "rotation_up": 48.71, "upward_expansion": 34.09, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.984, 3.846, 3.808095, 3.924441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 3.954833, "distance_from_trend": 0.051877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.894103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.216973, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.234421, "excess_performance": 0.046968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999044, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5147351, "relative_activity": 0.557664, "balance": 0.999044, "dry_up": 0.712358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14544, "annualized_volatility": 1.04129, "from_high_reference": -0.352025, "from_low_reference": 0.532228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.954833, "fair_value_reference": 4.894103, "structural_low": 2.715, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.057312, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.02468, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.306962, "worst_return": -0.374408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.092104, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.082662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.061611, "worst_return": -0.503876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.118255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.060606, "worst_return": -0.655393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168448, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.177823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.462085, "worst_return": -0.711152, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.580227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.249221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11509, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097983, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097928, "active": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.0, "volume": 5607840, "typical_volume": 9812684.7, "trend": 3.9155, "fair_value": 4.894679, "relative_strength": -7.079432, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.383677, "energy": 8.589691, "activity_lines": [ 3.854667, 3.714909, 3.809024, 3.915581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 7410424, "typical_volume": 9480925.35, "trend": 3.927167, "fair_value": 4.892436, "relative_strength": -11.561683, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.078634, "energy": 18.442791, "activity_lines": [ 3.868, 3.752909, 3.790524, 3.909419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 5147351, "typical_volume": 9230201.0, "trend": 3.954833, "fair_value": 4.894103, "relative_strength": -8.216973, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.843016, "energy": 12.791088, "activity_lines": [ 3.984, 3.846, 3.808095, 3.924441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }