{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10a5a4cc-78a2-45ed-8abb-4193e3a5f68c", "symbol": "TIP1D", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.757, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.801, "architecture_energy": 34.637, "architecture_maturity": 77.555, "architecture_confidence": 57.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 39.08, "upward_expansion": 70.23, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 17.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.433467, 10.452255, 10.407086, 10.36842 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.376, "trend_reference": 10.304452, "distance_from_trend": 0.006943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.139957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023278, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.550011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031002, "excess_performance": -0.13989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006943, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023278, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004983, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031002, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.144644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3915, "relative_activity": 0.548504, "balance": 1.144644, "dry_up": 0.570745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005961, "annualized_volatility": 0.048907, "from_high_reference": -0.12651, "from_low_reference": 0.045853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.304452, "fair_value_reference": 10.139957, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.002611, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.013176, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.027119, "worst_return": -0.032758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015736, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.010321, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.045661, "worst_return": -0.0439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025817, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.092323, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.072292, "worst_return": -0.060058, "sufficient": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 72.428637, "energy": 88.634111, "activity_lines": [ 10.482267, 10.433927, 10.371962, 10.325182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.508, "volume": 4241, "typical_volume": 10228.85, "trend": 10.273861, "fair_value": 10.121697, "relative_strength": -10.449673, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.689925, "energy": 88.40262, "activity_lines": [ 10.497867, 10.454909, 10.388114, 10.341146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.51, "volume": 3957, "typical_volume": 10125.55, "trend": 10.287227, "fair_value": 10.128318, "relative_strength": -9.98434, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.751067, "energy": 82.992761, "activity_lines": [ 10.5044, 10.4716, 10.40279, 10.356381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.396, "volume": 4182, "typical_volume": 7279.55, "trend": 10.298163, "fair_value": 10.134365, "relative_strength": -11.185625, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.683801, "energy": 53.673631, "activity_lines": [ 10.467467, 10.464509, 10.405771, 10.363399 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.376, "volume": 3915, "typical_volume": 7137.6, "trend": 10.304452, "fair_value": 10.139957, "relative_strength": -13.550011, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.80133, "energy": 34.637492, "activity_lines": [ 10.433467, 10.452255, 10.407086, 10.36842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }