{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10b27a5a-7d73-4a3f-90e6-7b66d5fee291", "symbol": "COLO", "name": "Coloplast A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.342, "architecture_energy": 62.525, "architecture_maturity": 6.005, "architecture_confidence": 66.934, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.87, "rotation_up": 71.6, "upward_expansion": 55.13, "deceleration": 18.33, "rotation_down": 14.19, "downward_expansion": 27.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.803999, 55.116, 53.491321, 53.624668 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.939999, "trend_reference": 55.177502, "distance_from_trend": 0.050066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.86079, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032088, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.252519, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041348, "excess_performance": -0.215594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050066, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 26.509091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 26.509091, "dry_up": 0.864969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04473, "annualized_volatility": 0.294413, "from_high_reference": -0.181417, "from_low_reference": 0.215434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.177502, "fair_value_reference": 59.86079, "structural_low": 47.670211, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005342, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037952, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.028809, "worst_return": -0.064046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26032, "worst_return": -0.18641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054698, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.204035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144276, "worst_return": -0.253673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024367, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.116815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -17.064052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.957026, "energy": 21.741172, "activity_lines": [ 54.025334, 52.997092, 52.211452, 53.439697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 104.85, "trend": 55.771605, "fair_value": 59.757418, "relative_strength": -20.794503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.278524, "energy": 23.308312, "activity_lines": [ 54.505334, 53.387273, 52.416523, 53.330699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.919998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 104.85, "trend": 55.531876, "fair_value": 59.810719, "relative_strength": -15.284434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.347528, "energy": 53.209526, "activity_lines": [ 55.870666, 54.284364, 52.959305, 53.469305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.939999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 104.05, "trend": 55.177502, "fair_value": 59.86079, "relative_strength": -17.252519, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.341765, "energy": 62.525227, "activity_lines": [ 56.803999, 55.116, 53.491321, 53.624668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }