{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10b487ef-9d3c-4a14-953b-aeb970767cf9", "symbol": "002941", "name": "Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.978, "architecture_energy": 55.632, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.044, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 46.5, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.184, 10.044387, 11.114269, 12.231788 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 13.676984, "distance_from_trend": -0.219126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.833983, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.404758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345588, "excess_performance": -0.352988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13719, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345588, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.041883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82036386, "relative_activity": 1.591163, "balance": 1.041883, "dry_up": 1.297282, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080826, "annualized_volatility": 0.37147, "from_high_reference": -0.505784, "from_low_reference": 0.16977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.676984, "fair_value_reference": 12.833983, "structural_low": 9.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.030951, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.027682, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.13058, "worst_return": -0.223498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.089154, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.042808, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.487805, "worst_return": -0.38637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06123, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.017681, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.149193, "worst_return": -0.233537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.264984, "fair_value": 12.91541, "relative_strength": -37.797029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.703939, "energy": 89.389903, "activity_lines": [ 9.585755, 10.232542, 11.847643, 12.962645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.63, "volume": 59067904, "typical_volume": 52491347.55, "trend": 14.043984, "fair_value": 12.883886, "relative_strength": -36.465067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.030377, "energy": 67.548531, "activity_lines": [ 9.557381, 9.991096, 11.509978, 12.663614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.52, "volume": 73364322, "typical_volume": 51698543.45, "trend": 13.849317, "fair_value": 12.858869, "relative_strength": -29.220745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.907962, "energy": 65.221613, "activity_lines": [ 9.87683, 9.977105, 11.290028, 12.43626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 82036386, "typical_volume": 51557515.5, "trend": 13.676984, "fair_value": 12.833983, "relative_strength": -31.404758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.977941, "energy": 55.631854, "activity_lines": [ 10.184, 10.044387, 11.114269, 12.231788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }