{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10b51636-309a-4194-bc26-2ee1724c25a7", "symbol": "7724", "name": "U ARK", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.795, "architecture_energy": 64.192, "architecture_maturity": 90.265, "architecture_confidence": 85.677, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.6, "rotation_up": 20.83, "upward_expansion": 10.09, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 67.29, "downward_expansion": 85.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.744546, 18.834524, 20.46 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 22.711667, "distance_from_trend": -0.339546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.798058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.479132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.471657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.462366, "excess_performance": -0.903738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.339546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.479132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.584717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.462366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 443763, "relative_activity": 4.069572, "balance": 0.885671, "dry_up": 2.793002, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.66406, "from_high_reference": -0.535604, "from_low_reference": 0.171875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.711667, "fair_value_reference": 28.798058, "structural_low": 12.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.130255, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.187271, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.014141, "worst_return": -0.203252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.553286, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.272727, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.0, "volume": 87236, "typical_volume": 63245.3, "trend": 24.13, "fair_value": 29.1675, "relative_strength": -61.588944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.207088, "energy": 84.618482, "activity_lines": [ 16.4, 17.951818, 20.246429, 21.841828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 226200, "typical_volume": 72103.95, "trend": 23.56, "fair_value": 29.024257, "relative_strength": -58.445477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.363928, "energy": 83.340371, "activity_lines": [ 15.613333, 17.09, 19.563572, 21.233441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.75, "volume": 461043, "typical_volume": 90306.05, "trend": 23.178333, "fair_value": 28.933333, "relative_strength": -44.509799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.812451, "energy": 64.802191, "activity_lines": [ 16.736667, 17.315455, 19.412619, 20.987634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.0, "volume": 443763, "typical_volume": 109044.15, "trend": 22.711667, "fair_value": 28.798058, "relative_strength": -58.471657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.795426, "energy": 64.192434, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.744546, 18.834524, 20.46 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }