{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10b585c1-8446-4ce2-95c6-4112f7dff3f4", "symbol": "CNV", "name": "Franklin Conservative Income ETF Portfolio Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.008, "architecture_energy": 35.915, "architecture_maturity": 50.901, "architecture_confidence": 69.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.22, "rotation_up": 34.95, "upward_expansion": 65.22, "deceleration": 87.72, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 17.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.294001, 22.323405, 22.221433, 22.095808 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.4, "trend_reference": 21.964364, "distance_from_trend": 0.019834, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.633255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085626, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.333064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032414, "excess_performance": -0.088008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019834, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012448, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085626, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007109, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.397175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 605, "relative_activity": 0.320123, "balance": 0.397175, "dry_up": 0.331367, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007854, "annualized_volatility": 0.065727, "from_high_reference": -0.004444, "from_low_reference": 0.082544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.964364, "fair_value_reference": 20.633255, "structural_low": 21.280437, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.018211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018211, "worst_return": 0.018211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010881, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010881, "worst_return": -0.010881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.045175, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045175, "worst_return": 0.045175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 18.939657, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 18.933094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 18.849842, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"fair_value": 20.572732, "relative_strength": -6.978441, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.398124, "energy": 80.581569, "activity_lines": [ 22.403811, 22.306416, 22.105454, 21.998916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.34, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 1993.95, "trend": 21.897957, "fair_value": 20.588798, "relative_strength": -6.690863, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.293361, "energy": 72.488723, "activity_lines": [ 22.388222, 22.329377, 22.143182, 22.029317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1934.75, "trend": 21.919854, "fair_value": 20.603313, "relative_strength": -7.235295, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.766974, "energy": 48.658194, "activity_lines": [ 22.321641, 22.321189, 22.166212, 22.048804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.190001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1934.75, "trend": 21.941582, "fair_value": 20.61748, "relative_strength": -6.55712, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.001212, "energy": 33.097636, "activity_lines": [ 22.267334, 22.3046, 22.185469, 22.066233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.4, "volume": 605, "typical_volume": 1889.9, "trend": 21.964364, "fair_value": 20.633255, "relative_strength": -8.333064, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.007614, "energy": 35.914857, "activity_lines": [ 22.294001, 22.323405, 22.221433, 22.095808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }