{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10b64288-aad6-41d0-984c-aed9a348d885", "symbol": "VRAI", "name": "ETFIS SERIES TRUST I VIRTUS REAL ASSET INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.296, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.662, "architecture_energy": 58.827, "architecture_maturity": 61.052, "architecture_confidence": 76.379, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.25, "rotation_up": 64.25, "upward_expansion": 84.07, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 15.54, "downward_expansion": 10.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.40408, 28.221016, 28.00565, 27.683673 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.1183, "trend_reference": 27.084916, "distance_from_trend": 0.038153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.7477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.402888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110945, "excess_performance": -0.01468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110945, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.181419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3525, "relative_activity": 0.421505, "balance": 1.181419, "dry_up": 0.8541, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02245, "annualized_volatility": 0.113772, "from_high_reference": -0.030069, "from_low_reference": 0.263315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.084916, "fair_value_reference": 22.7477, "structural_low": 25.237145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.003494, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.012288, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.075893, "worst_return": -0.103248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021954, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038243, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.120816, "worst_return": -0.041131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028988, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.090321, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.177699, "worst_return": -0.133425, "sufficient": true }, { 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40.036276, "activity_lines": [ 27.785878, 27.784516, 27.582255, 27.103314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.8786, "volume": 5841, "typical_volume": 9994.6, "trend": 26.37571, "fair_value": 22.544601, "relative_strength": 0.523933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.193642, "energy": 30.727606, "activity_lines": [ 27.795942, 27.802761, 27.638377, 27.209731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.51, "volume": 7495, "typical_volume": 9626.5, "trend": 26.565296, "fair_value": 22.592999, "relative_strength": 4.307142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.52122, "energy": 47.183665, "activity_lines": [ 28.01848, 27.939082, 27.747366, 27.347427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.8465, "volume": 3586, "typical_volume": 9265.7, "trend": 26.760888, "fair_value": 22.64541, "relative_strength": 6.001329, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.860763, "energy": 54.410032, "activity_lines": [ 28.341147, 28.118074, 27.878714, 27.494601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5079, "volume": 13965, "typical_volume": 9315.9, "trend": 26.934693, "fair_value": 22.698108, "relative_strength": 3.515497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.474547, "energy": 60.896115, "activity_lines": [ 28.45616, 28.209135, 27.966096, 27.607312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1183, "volume": 3525, "typical_volume": 8362.9, "trend": 27.084916, "fair_value": 22.7477, "relative_strength": -1.402888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.662392, "energy": 58.827493, "activity_lines": [ 28.40408, 28.221016, 28.00565, 27.683673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }