{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10bbe8b8-919e-441e-be8c-030ef4875f24", "symbol": "FRPT", "name": "Freshpet Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.992, "architecture_energy": 22.351, "architecture_maturity": 20.703, "architecture_confidence": 63.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.74, "rotation_up": 43.66, "upward_expansion": 33.56, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 17.14, "downward_expansion": 44.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.815333, 58.458, 57.072619, 59.299204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 66.91, "trend_reference": 62.595667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.687885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.991799, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042775, "excess_performance": -0.230229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292971, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.986434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13402459, "relative_activity": 1.766854, "balance": 1.986434, "dry_up": 0.924214, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089903, "annualized_volatility": 0.598486, "from_high_reference": -0.221977, "from_low_reference": 0.440474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.595667, "fair_value_reference": 89.687885, "structural_low": 46.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032936, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012352, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.214089, "worst_return": -0.308126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033468, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.135145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207821, "worst_return": -0.508628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.169663, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.274084, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.202108, "worst_return": -0.532786, "sufficient": true }, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.64, "volume": 5545709, "typical_volume": 7789961.1, "trend": 62.742, "fair_value": 89.942308, "relative_strength": -16.150865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.180367, "energy": 20.618378, "activity_lines": [ 55.779333, 54.575636, 56.25519, 59.542667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.54, "volume": 4618063, "typical_volume": 7645299.45, "trend": 62.521, "fair_value": 89.859808, "relative_strength": -12.723086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.219627, "energy": 18.789401, "activity_lines": [ 56.354, 55.328182, 56.059952, 59.207054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.54, "volume": 4476252, "typical_volume": 7540470.3, "trend": 62.500667, "fair_value": 89.768782, "relative_strength": -9.591467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.170653, "energy": 12.393599, "activity_lines": [ 57.426667, 56.295455, 56.174714, 59.014731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.91, "volume": 13402459, "typical_volume": 7585491.45, "trend": 62.595667, "fair_value": 89.687885, "relative_strength": -2.991799, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.991879, "energy": 22.35147, "activity_lines": [ 60.815333, 58.458, 57.072619, 59.299204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }