{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10c45637-b53d-4913-9558-04fc1c82c518", "symbol": "9400", "name": "FALCOM Saudi Equity ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.39, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.578, "architecture_energy": 10.36, "architecture_maturity": 23.072, "architecture_confidence": 68.329, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.85, "rotation_up": 22.58, "upward_expansion": 18.4, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 40.72, "downward_expansion": 34.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.082, 49.144363, 49.453762, 49.413699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.220001, "trend_reference": 49.190667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.65359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.926958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018544, "excess_performance": 0.029732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02927, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018544, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.983925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3495, "relative_activity": 0.547282, "balance": 0.983925, "dry_up": 0.303941, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02363, "annualized_volatility": 0.085726, "from_high_reference": -0.047047, "from_low_reference": 0.118128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.190667, "fair_value_reference": 49.65359, "structural_low": 46.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009974, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.001687, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.056485, "worst_return": -0.047505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035928, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165939, "worst_return": -0.047363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050898, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128821, "worst_return": -0.019175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013232, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 49.48, "volume": 16284, "typical_volume": 322921.7, "trend": 46.803, "fair_value": 44.926539, "relative_strength": -2.068736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.392213, "energy": 11.185758, "activity_lines": [ 49.180666, 49.420909, 49.625191, 49.38299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.029999, "volume": 1315, "typical_volume": 7682.75, "trend": 48.912667, "fair_value": 49.648334, "relative_strength": 4.012638, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.766329, "energy": 12.013776, "activity_lines": [ 49.096666, 49.309636, 49.583953, 49.395527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.189999, "volume": 727, "typical_volume": 7550.45, "trend": 49.005667, "fair_value": 49.650513, "relative_strength": 3.501223, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.641888, "energy": 15.233962, "activity_lines": [ 49.111999, 49.257454, 49.555238, 49.413419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.889999, "volume": 2227, "typical_volume": 7378.2, "trend": 49.1, "fair_value": 49.651539, "relative_strength": 4.771883, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.525105, "energy": 22.394276, "activity_lines": [ 49.036666, 49.162363, 49.491476, 49.405957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.220001, "volume": 3495, "typical_volume": 6386.1, "trend": 49.190667, "fair_value": 49.65359, "relative_strength": 2.926958, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.577805, "energy": 10.359555, "activity_lines": [ 49.082, 49.144363, 49.453762, 49.413699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }