{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10c86b10-0808-4fa1-b30b-67a2e799c994", "symbol": "603022", "name": "Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.964, "architecture_energy": 58.637, "architecture_maturity": 54.783, "architecture_confidence": 95.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 22.54, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 58.78, "downward_expansion": 83.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.998, 8.123012, 8.934517, 9.455285 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.44, "trend_reference": 10.086929, "distance_from_trend": -0.163274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.960391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.791628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.256388, "excess_performance": -0.213184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18946100, "relative_activity": 1.04943, "balance": 0.26447, "dry_up": 1.135421, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091677, "annualized_volatility": 0.342597, "from_high_reference": -0.29016, "from_low_reference": 0.185393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.086929, "fair_value_reference": 8.960391, "structural_low": 7.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.016377, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.036288, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.146684, "worst_return": -0.116788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049849, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.21802, "worst_return": -0.185747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001112, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009734, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.189681, "worst_return": -0.220295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.341263, "fair_value": 8.990889, "relative_strength": -20.495294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.400881, "energy": 90.267549, "activity_lines": [ 8.096206, 8.628846, 9.466297, 9.902949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.33, "volume": 25495937, "typical_volume": 18394238.9, "trend": 10.229596, "fair_value": 8.977338, "relative_strength": -26.198923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.713787, "energy": 87.035252, "activity_lines": [ 7.799341, 8.286, 9.214069, 9.708674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.01, "volume": 18089700, "typical_volume": 18230222.75, "trend": 10.147929, "fair_value": 8.967958, "relative_strength": -19.278264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.979184, "energy": 65.503239, "activity_lines": [ 7.822667, 8.137559, 9.046031, 9.565474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.44, "volume": 18946100, "typical_volume": 18053708.9, "trend": 10.086929, "fair_value": 8.960391, "relative_strength": -16.791628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.964255, "energy": 58.636825, "activity_lines": [ 7.998, 8.123012, 8.934517, 9.455285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }