{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10cb9817-fadd-45d2-99ad-d7484644473a", "symbol": "000028", "name": "China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.677, "architecture_energy": 20.365, "architecture_maturity": 76.804, "architecture_confidence": 76.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.61, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 19.04, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 57.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.529333, 20.337206, 20.60867, 21.087104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.32, "trend_reference": 21.638362, "distance_from_trend": -0.060927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.134523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.737925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116321, "excess_performance": -0.123721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14573866, "relative_activity": 0.772029, "balance": 0.301839, "dry_up": 0.951074, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049819, "annualized_volatility": 0.181478, "from_high_reference": -0.160456, "from_low_reference": 0.06499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.638362, "fair_value_reference": 24.134523, "structural_low": 19.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.007915, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.01356, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.260159, "worst_return": -0.1106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.053112, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.003755, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.191235, "worst_return": -0.068445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014718, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.046297, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.109306, "worst_return": -0.069596, "sufficient": true }, { 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20.161984, 20.926485, 21.390372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.780001, "volume": 25273969, "typical_volume": 19809335.45, "trend": 21.775777, "fair_value": 24.351462, "relative_strength": -6.627973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.322203, "energy": 39.381427, "activity_lines": [ 20.266783, 20.221899, 20.851923, 21.323965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.16, "volume": 18103332, "typical_volume": 19520014.9, "trend": 21.712168, "fair_value": 24.271003, "relative_strength": -9.237621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.725505, "energy": 30.009417, "activity_lines": [ 20.293334, 20.184809, 20.727892, 21.219722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.02, "volume": 13863918, "typical_volume": 19264974.9, "trend": 21.683402, "fair_value": 24.203042, "relative_strength": -3.442297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.447817, "energy": 22.352573, "activity_lines": [ 20.592, 20.32482, 20.697123, 21.175066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.32, "volume": 14573866, "typical_volume": 18877367.1, "trend": 21.638362, "fair_value": 24.134523, "relative_strength": -10.737925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.676951, "energy": 20.364715, "activity_lines": [ 20.529333, 20.337206, 20.60867, 21.087104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }