{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10d0dc63-45fc-4c3d-9168-61c80b5a7102", "symbol": "000612", "name": "JiaoZuo WanFang Aluminum Manufacturing Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.312, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.949, "architecture_energy": 26.372, "architecture_maturity": 41.162, "architecture_confidence": 72.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.14, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 14.93, "deceleration": 45.63, "rotation_down": 36.52, "downward_expansion": 64.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.912, 10.809455, 11.203208, 11.568792 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 12.030447, "distance_from_trend": -0.044092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.715048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.0786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129504, "excess_performance": -0.136904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173281747, "relative_activity": 0.981713, "balance": 1.105084, "dry_up": 1.112831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081374, "annualized_volatility": 0.449414, "from_high_reference": -0.24278, "from_low_reference": 0.522246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.030447, "fair_value_reference": 7.715048, "structural_low": 9.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014292, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.438384, "worst_return": -0.171088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068801, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.063286, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.482828, "worst_return": -0.100132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018538, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.379771, "worst_return": -0.15942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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219508692, "typical_volume": 186719115.75, "trend": 11.991372, "fair_value": 7.63049, "relative_strength": -2.792275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.332807, "energy": 67.474847, "activity_lines": [ 10.374, 10.670363, 11.254716, 11.659508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.09, "volume": 163443972, "typical_volume": 180767110.25, "trend": 12.004726, "fair_value": 7.671425, "relative_strength": 4.928403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.274824, "energy": 44.78259, "activity_lines": [ 10.582, 10.693091, 11.203531, 11.601355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 173281747, "typical_volume": 176509543.9, "trend": 12.030447, "fair_value": 7.715048, "relative_strength": 3.0786, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.949116, "energy": 26.371973, "activity_lines": [ 10.912, 10.809455, 11.203208, 11.568792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }