{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10d0f5a2-8936-40e4-9486-14cd5d15e4f8", "symbol": "002599", "name": "Beijing Shengtong Printing Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.521, "architecture_energy": 24.275, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.32, "rotation_up": 30.05, "upward_expansion": 20.36, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.47, "downward_expansion": 56.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.994667, 5.801618, 6.045883, 6.379848 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 6.91788, "distance_from_trend": -0.11389, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.236297, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.309568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.23375, "excess_performance": -0.24115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11389, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.324399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66645344, "relative_activity": 1.341869, "balance": 0.324399, "dry_up": 1.567912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095925, "annualized_volatility": 0.383478, "from_high_reference": -0.371282, "from_low_reference": 0.230924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.91788, "fair_value_reference": 7.236297, "structural_low": 4.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.005524, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.015631, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.340957, "worst_return": -0.150362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.046539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008627, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.634095, "worst_return": -0.213068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027155, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.017856, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.558536, "worst_return": -0.092879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-25.254585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.198682, "energy": 59.151998, "activity_lines": [ 5.526667, 5.687976, 6.158879, 6.576664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.87, "volume": 95543820, "typical_volume": 47880178.6, "trend": 7.067547, "fair_value": 7.261344, "relative_strength": -24.786242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.74852, "energy": 46.593904, "activity_lines": [ 5.662667, 5.6768, 6.096373, 6.495059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.15, "volume": 57646550, "typical_volume": 48406590.45, "trend": 6.998213, "fair_value": 7.248885, "relative_strength": -19.018557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.196372, "energy": 31.689035, "activity_lines": [ 5.87, 5.735224, 6.069104, 6.435862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 66645344, "typical_volume": 49666052.65, "trend": 6.91788, "fair_value": 7.236297, "relative_strength": -22.309568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.521018, "energy": 24.275205, "activity_lines": [ 5.994667, 5.801618, 6.045883, 6.379848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }