{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10d16d73-6f2d-4e07-a920-de49d0344ae8", "symbol": "603567", "name": "Heilongjiang ZBD Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.665, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.95, "architecture_energy": 20.69, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 46.257, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.59, "rotation_up": 39.56, "upward_expansion": 20.87, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 54.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.298, 5.784182, 6.082857, 6.413677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.08, "trend_reference": 6.989, "distance_from_trend": 0.01302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.545635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.185757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.190857, "excess_performance": -0.147653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030977, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161218, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 421365269, "relative_activity": 2.817917, "balance": 1.541345, "dry_up": 2.961809, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137223, "annualized_volatility": 0.647375, "from_high_reference": -0.468367, "from_low_reference": 0.669811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.989, "fair_value_reference": 10.545635, "structural_low": 4.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013551, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.007078, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.366822, "worst_return": -0.401399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053935, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.030055, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.200599, "worst_return": -0.254902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074539, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.080088, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.254209, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041293, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058563, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.125333, 5.486, 6.098667, 6.570108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.85, "volume": 511299244, "typical_volume": 106340472.85, "trend": 7.169333, "fair_value": 10.643139, "relative_strength": -33.143285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.040009, "energy": 44.157075, "activity_lines": [ 5.438, 5.465091, 6.036143, 6.476258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.17, "volume": 559959431, "typical_volume": 131663705.55, "trend": 7.050667, "fair_value": 10.585377, "relative_strength": -28.734008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.768013, "energy": 24.15258, "activity_lines": [ 5.779333, 5.528364, 6.012762, 6.411785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.08, "volume": 421365269, "typical_volume": 149530772.15, "trend": 6.989, "fair_value": 10.545635, "relative_strength": -19.185757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.949744, "energy": 20.690142, "activity_lines": [ 6.298, 5.784182, 6.082857, 6.413677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }