{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10d363d1-37f3-43dc-a8f5-16a98c4e5d18", "symbol": "3003", "name": "City Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.752, "architecture_energy": 92.965, "architecture_maturity": 27.293, "architecture_confidence": 80.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.12, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 87.05, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.302667, 10.673636, 11.235341, 11.484705 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 11.81837, "distance_from_trend": -0.141167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.620528, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.880568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202859, "excess_performance": -0.17103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3170981, "relative_activity": 0.965333, "balance": 0.125093, "dry_up": 1.061618, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032891, "annualized_volatility": 0.22827, "from_high_reference": -0.362384, "from_low_reference": 0.008946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.81837, "fair_value_reference": 15.620528, "structural_low": 10.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.003247, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.005938, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.266786, "worst_return": -0.123656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032445, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.043791, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.21424, "worst_return": -0.190204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.151981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006643, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186165, "worst_return": -0.244139, "sufficient": true }, { 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10.972667, 11.307273, 11.676447, 11.819112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.45, "volume": 2643784, "typical_volume": 3056391.6, "trend": 11.962734, "fair_value": 15.740615, "relative_strength": -17.523721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.894868, "energy": 94.354097, "activity_lines": [ 10.746667, 11.104545, 11.546086, 11.717828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.09, "volume": 3408364, "typical_volume": 3160098.65, "trend": 11.890675, "fair_value": 15.681432, "relative_strength": -18.145316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.033477, "energy": 96.35398, "activity_lines": [ 10.474, 10.864545, 11.38507, 11.597007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 3170981, "typical_volume": 3284858.0, "trend": 11.81837, "fair_value": 15.620528, "relative_strength": -18.880568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.75237, "energy": 92.965121, "activity_lines": [ 10.302667, 10.673636, 11.235341, 11.484705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }