{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "10d4cfb9-e3b2-49a0-a7c9-ac30dcd295d9",
    "symbol": "IYT",
    "name": "ISHARES U.S. TRANSPORTATION ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 50.31,
    "architecture_energy": 39.936,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.14,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.714,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.17,
        "rotation_up": 46.85,
        "upward_expansion": 69.21,
        "deceleration": 60.79,
        "rotation_down": 25.25,
        "downward_expansion": 16.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        85.279043,
        83.353609
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 87.23,
    "trend_reference": 81.258158,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.073492,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 68.837107,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267194,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.738108,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.065831,
    "excess_performance": -0.059794,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073492,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056265,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.267194,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057229,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007381,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020878,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065831,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.965581,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2257426,
      "relative_activity": 0.57068,
      "balance": 1.965581,
      "dry_up": 0.799519,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036912,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.200274,
      "from_high_reference": -0.031423,
      "from_low_reference": 0.30261
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 81.258158,
      "fair_value_reference": 68.837107,
      "structural_low": 71.911621,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 24,
        "median_return": 0.005021,
        "positive_rate": 0.541667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.541667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008295,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.083219,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.214835,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.183664,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-07-19",
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        "return": 0.027094,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 88.02,
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        "typical_volume": 4018853.45,
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        "fair_value": 68.527233,
        "relative_strength": 6.598197,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 64.023501,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 84.89,
        "volume": 3749543,
        "typical_volume": 3989514.5,
        "trend": 80.936328,
        "fair_value": 68.672286,
        "relative_strength": 1.580764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.311707,
        "energy": 47.283704,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 87.23,
        "volume": 2257426,
        "typical_volume": 3955676.3,
        "trend": 81.258158,
        "fair_value": 68.837107,
        "relative_strength": 0.738108,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.309836,
        "energy": 39.936499,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}