{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10d85590-716a-424c-aa26-a8a3a49d00ba", "symbol": "8454", "name": "momo.com Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.672, "architecture_energy": 18.391, "architecture_maturity": 67.413, "architecture_confidence": 75.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.17, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 54.01, "deceleration": 90.89, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 17.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 260.933333, 270.2, 264.296865, 245.064347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 262.5, "trend_reference": 222.838261, "distance_from_trend": 0.177984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 303.717937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135711, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.863075, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.428046, "excess_performance": -0.013326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.177984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120678, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135711, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.289645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.428046, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4628694, "relative_activity": 0.731342, "balance": 1.518723, "dry_up": 0.733927, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194863, "annualized_volatility": 0.773029, "from_high_reference": -0.425112, "from_low_reference": 0.598052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 222.838261, "fair_value_reference": 303.717937, "structural_low": 164.262511, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044854, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083382, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.012539, "worst_return": -0.061765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.167095, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.232456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.133074, "worst_return": -0.201117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.372475, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.401763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186849, "worst_return": -0.558101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.408603, "activity_lines": [ 301.8, 294.476254, 251.615983, 232.233227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 254.0, "volume": 4158676, "typical_volume": 5883282.15, "trend": 215.556096, "fair_value": 309.154215, "relative_strength": -18.284932, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.924895, "energy": 31.955254, "activity_lines": [ 280.866667, 291.254149, 254.558763, 234.807636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 238.5, "volume": 3784312, "typical_volume": 5931004.7, "trend": 216.629233, "fair_value": 307.507404, "relative_strength": -23.962508, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.119526, "energy": 28.356051, "activity_lines": [ 261.6, 284.080037, 255.712103, 236.287888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 245.5, "volume": 6246774, "typical_volume": 6107545.8, "trend": 218.049774, "fair_value": 306.077381, "relative_strength": -19.565623, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.0569, "energy": 27.649841, "activity_lines": [ 251.5, 277.175538, 257.239126, 238.150518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 283.5, "volume": 3920443, "typical_volume": 6172902.4, "trend": 220.78587, "fair_value": 304.933927, "relative_strength": -8.138514, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.613003, "energy": 24.540088, "activity_lines": [ 259.4, 276.120851, 262.028614, 242.373113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 262.5, "volume": 4628694, "typical_volume": 6329044.65, "trend": 222.838261, "fair_value": 303.717937, "relative_strength": -16.863075, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.672048, "energy": 18.39125, "activity_lines": [ 260.933333, 270.2, 264.296865, 245.064347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }