{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10db987c-6467-475a-b55f-64a4f4aaa71a", "symbol": "600118", "name": "China Spacesat Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.923, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.289, "architecture_energy": 72.487, "architecture_maturity": 21.696, "architecture_confidence": 75.232, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.89, "rotation_up": 11.85, "upward_expansion": 18.99, "deceleration": 34.29, "rotation_down": 69.6, "downward_expansion": 87.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.800031, 69.488662, 76.999294, 80.379908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.68, "trend_reference": 85.444718, "distance_from_trend": -0.196205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.757346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.727479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.7433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247425, "excess_performance": -0.204221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078058, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.727479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.470856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027433, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.896006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215172438, "relative_activity": 1.022716, "balance": 0.312335, "dry_up": 1.178139, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188717, "annualized_volatility": 0.782829, "from_high_reference": -0.462472, "from_low_reference": 1.413212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.444718, "fair_value_reference": 39.757346, "structural_low": 53.634879, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006541, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.272801, "worst_return": -0.17031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01964, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.017561, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.431918, "worst_return": -0.226459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003202, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.508637, "worst_return": -0.13518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -1.649286, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.207355, "energy": 39.901008, "activity_lines": [ 76.096225, 78.21711, 83.329031, 85.321617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.779999, "volume": 231562932, "typical_volume": 210163258.45, "trend": 87.072385, "fair_value": 39.325882, "relative_strength": -9.015433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.64266, "energy": 59.430714, "activity_lines": [ 69.573455, 74.038355, 80.723071, 83.429764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.439999, "volume": 149037121, "typical_volume": 207626117.8, "trend": 86.320385, "fair_value": 39.497337, "relative_strength": -10.706525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.830454, "energy": 74.379899, "activity_lines": [ 64.186685, 70.489417, 78.254683, 81.517997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.68, "volume": 215172438, "typical_volume": 210393222.45, "trend": 85.444718, "fair_value": 39.757346, "relative_strength": 2.7433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.289157, "energy": 72.486881, "activity_lines": [ 63.800031, 69.488662, 76.999294, 80.379908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }