{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10e00b03-c1a0-4b84-84ec-9918f25c86fc", "symbol": "603499", "name": "Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.336, "architecture_energy": 67.575, "architecture_maturity": 25.189, "architecture_confidence": 82.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 11.94, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 69.09, "downward_expansion": 87.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.664, 12.202255, 13.048265, 13.779097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.0, "trend_reference": 14.686922, "distance_from_trend": -0.114859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.944653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.781942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228047, "excess_performance": -0.184843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28882648, "relative_activity": 0.842246, "balance": 0.881717, "dry_up": 0.904917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124302, "annualized_volatility": 0.486275, "from_high_reference": -0.285039, "from_low_reference": 0.345756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.686922, "fair_value_reference": 10.944653, "structural_low": 9.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.054295, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.043384, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.476131, "worst_return": -0.226703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.117949, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.094529, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.461596, "worst_return": -0.051811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155547, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.156938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.972408, "worst_return": 0.061397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 13.457258, 13.600612, 14.21539, 14.696823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.93, "volume": 31414781, "typical_volume": 36479596.95, "trend": 14.954148, "fair_value": 10.816786, "relative_strength": -18.221145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.979048, "energy": 62.25765, "activity_lines": [ 12.606952, 13.057395, 13.844096, 14.430585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.47, "volume": 34582801, "typical_volume": 36061779.65, "trend": 14.856391, "fair_value": 10.852816, "relative_strength": -22.478907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.819147, "energy": 81.453793, "activity_lines": [ 11.729333, 12.50262, 13.45345, 14.141285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.98, "volume": 29246974, "typical_volume": 35363522.2, "trend": 14.737516, "fair_value": 10.892693, "relative_strength": -18.97003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.502423, "energy": 81.48166, "activity_lines": [ 11.266, 12.129924, 13.139885, 13.891195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.0, "volume": 28882648, "typical_volume": 34292424.35, "trend": 14.686922, "fair_value": 10.944653, "relative_strength": -6.781942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.335622, "energy": 67.574901, "activity_lines": [ 11.664, 12.202255, 13.048265, 13.779097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }