{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10e0742a-0ed3-47d3-b35e-3076d1b40c9e", "symbol": "NUMG", "name": "NUVEEN ESG MID-CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.792, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.495, "architecture_energy": 41.218, "architecture_maturity": 15.624, "architecture_confidence": 78.48, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.98, "rotation_up": 50.39, "upward_expansion": 78.56, "deceleration": 55.47, "rotation_down": 23.17, "downward_expansion": 5.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.676387, 46.424853, 45.96969, 45.257017 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.265, "trend_reference": 44.77456, "distance_from_trend": 0.077956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.375092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08766, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.070348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105981, "excess_performance": -0.019644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105981, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.459356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52469, "relative_activity": 0.426184, "balance": 2.459356, "dry_up": 0.464458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036059, "annualized_volatility": 0.188408, "from_high_reference": -0.028873, "from_low_reference": 0.219275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.77456, "fair_value_reference": 44.375092, "structural_low": 39.585, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.009274, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.01847, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.066068, "worst_return": -0.105721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011265, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.047609, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.050791, "worst_return": -0.17314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012284, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.118398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003173, "worst_return": -0.113919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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44.633286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.91, "volume": 67137, "typical_volume": 152235.95, "trend": 45.073543, "fair_value": 44.15415, "relative_strength": -8.23232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.012114, "energy": 22.990313, "activity_lines": [ 46.018773, 46.01002, 44.974548, 44.749478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.055, "volume": 91345, "typical_volume": 151323.15, "trend": 45.04123, "fair_value": 44.200136, "relative_strength": -8.801302, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.09331, "energy": 26.246089, "activity_lines": [ 46.404333, 46.223949, 45.251315, 44.877314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.0779, "volume": 45116, "typical_volume": 148200.3, "trend": 44.96416, "fair_value": 44.239079, "relative_strength": -8.885842, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.517051, "energy": 32.08783, "activity_lines": [ 46.384633, 46.219405, 45.418954, 44.944196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.15, "volume": 65981, "typical_volume": 135329.8, "trend": 44.846727, "fair_value": 44.272022, "relative_strength": -9.747278, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.744883, "energy": 28.599654, "activity_lines": [ 46.04244, 46.043645, 45.488421, 44.956186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.04, "volume": 65158, "typical_volume": 128569.3, "trend": 44.795393, "fair_value": 44.31553, "relative_strength": -8.561191, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.893714, "energy": 23.438665, "activity_lines": [ 46.00358, 46.032613, 45.63408, 45.033171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.265, "volume": 52469, "typical_volume": 123113.35, "trend": 44.77456, "fair_value": 44.375092, "relative_strength": -7.070348, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.494938, "energy": 41.217531, "activity_lines": [ 46.676387, 46.424853, 45.96969, 45.257017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }