{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10e440c9-7a17-4e7c-b95e-f05d731f9e7d", "symbol": "R8R", "name": "Regener8 Resources NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.126, "architecture_energy": 38.263, "architecture_maturity": 16.89, "architecture_confidence": 89.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.17, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 4.47, "deceleration": 50.09, "rotation_down": 50.29, "downward_expansion": 75.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.118, 0.119273, 0.12519, 0.129032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.130333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.128603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066893, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.735127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090909, "excess_performance": 0.027203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61694, "relative_activity": 1.947796, "balance": 1.581318, "dry_up": 0.910588, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112179, "annualized_volatility": 0.832922, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.290323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.130333, "fair_value_reference": 0.128603, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.030928, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.022384, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.017937, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.234568, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.133628, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.441114, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.35458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.728383, "worst_return": 0.153846, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.352, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.54321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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11.660589, "activity_lines": [ 0.134333, 0.134727, 0.137833, 0.136355 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.125, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100503.4, "trend": 0.135167, "fair_value": 0.130974, "relative_strength": -2.243639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.736808, "energy": 15.865267, "activity_lines": [ 0.131667, 0.132636, 0.136738, 0.135667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.115, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100503.4, "trend": 0.134333, "fair_value": 0.13059, "relative_strength": -10.562609, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.142754, "energy": 37.010742, "activity_lines": [ 0.126, 0.129182, 0.134619, 0.134366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.115, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98003.4, "trend": 0.1335, "fair_value": 0.130141, "relative_strength": -9.853645, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.576716, "energy": 65.87283, "activity_lines": [ 0.121, 0.126364, 0.132476, 0.133118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.105, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 96349.65, "trend": 0.132333, "fair_value": 0.129692, "relative_strength": -17.786505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.555225, "energy": 76.631922, "activity_lines": [ 0.114, 0.122, 0.129405, 0.13128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 6888, "typical_volume": 37256.8, "trend": 0.1315, "fair_value": 0.129308, "relative_strength": -10.017237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.851118, "energy": 69.962898, "activity_lines": [ 0.113, 0.119727, 0.12731, 0.130161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 36785, "typical_volume": 37470.8, "trend": 0.131, "fair_value": 0.128987, "relative_strength": -4.821347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.766876, "energy": 60.902826, "activity_lines": [ 0.116333, 0.119909, 0.126381, 0.129742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 61694, "typical_volume": 31673.75, "trend": 0.130333, "fair_value": 0.128603, "relative_strength": -11.735127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.125856, "energy": 38.262674, "activity_lines": [ 0.118, 0.119273, 0.12519, 0.129032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }