{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "10e5ece6-86cb-475a-b916-0601c349fe02",
    "symbol": "EMHD",
    "name": "Invesco FTSE Emerging Markets High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 61.947,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.697,
    "architecture_energy": 73.306,
    "architecture_maturity": 5.65,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.788,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.12,
        "rotation_up": 74.8,
        "upward_expansion": 89.28,
        "deceleration": 44.85,
        "rotation_down": 8.19,
        "downward_expansion": 15.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        25.715334,
        25.442417,
        25.278097,
        25.252751
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 25.67,
    "trend_reference": 25.151265,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.020625,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.151807,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213608,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.374318,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.030043,
    "excess_performance": -0.023268,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020625,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028306,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.213608,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019246,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003743,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.089504,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030043,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.15593,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1301,
      "relative_activity": 0.535964,
      "balance": 0.15593,
      "dry_up": 0.480349,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015372,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.094334,
      "from_high_reference": -0.018356,
      "from_low_reference": 0.207347
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 25.151265,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.151807,
      "structural_low": 24.385,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": -0.001334,
        "positive_rate": 0.484848,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.484848,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003467,
        "regime_survival": 0.575758,
        "best_return": 0.070048,
        "worst_return": -0.109888,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.031121,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0105,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.091552,
        "worst_return": -0.042685,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.026389,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020206,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.140783,
        "worst_return": -0.117908,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.052119,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043223,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.20262,
        "worst_return": -0.029983,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
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        "return": 0.026374,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.001024,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.073764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 3350.7,
        "trend": 24.440056,
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        "relative_strength": 8.389756,
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 4142.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 60,
        "typical_volume": 4185.05,
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        "relative_strength": 3.758312,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 20.862606,
        "relative_strength": 0.119185,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "energy": 21.005533,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 243,
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        "trend": 24.727052,
        "fair_value": 20.908526,
        "relative_strength": 0.03049,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3212.5,
        "trend": 24.812773,
        "fair_value": 20.957818,
        "relative_strength": 3.622275,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 16.43873,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 25.559999,
        "volume": 802,
        "typical_volume": 2912.3,
        "trend": 24.900699,
        "fair_value": 21.007473,
        "relative_strength": 4.223557,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.524613,
        "energy": 26.787451,
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          25.186,
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          25.109899,
          25.099595
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 25.870001,
        "volume": 734,
        "typical_volume": 2617.75,
        "trend": 25.002101,
        "fair_value": 21.054522,
        "relative_strength": 4.792555,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.437418,
        "energy": 52.252771,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.465667,
          25.208525,
          25.177044,
          25.16213
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.825001,
        "volume": 1827,
        "typical_volume": 2481.15,
        "trend": 25.088278,
        "fair_value": 21.10306,
        "relative_strength": 2.761954,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.171041,
        "energy": 72.970002,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.659334,
          25.349259,
          25.23619,
          25.215221
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 25.67,
        "volume": 1301,
        "typical_volume": 2427.4,
        "trend": 25.151265,
        "fair_value": 21.151807,
        "relative_strength": -0.374318,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.697302,
        "energy": 73.305773,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.715334,
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          25.252751
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}