{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10e67946-ed4c-4b79-b6fe-82f29b1e6566", "symbol": "POMO3", "name": "Marcopolo S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -94.079, "architecture_energy": 96.995, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.485, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.17, "rotation_up": 8.12, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 89.73, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 5.011818, 5.399826, 5.557854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.21, "trend_reference": 5.71588, "distance_from_trend": -0.263456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.478747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.956335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283885, "excess_performance": -0.226837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.263456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484416, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283885, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17732700, "relative_activity": 4.098601, "balance": 0.461091, "dry_up": 2.353621, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080943, "annualized_volatility": 0.390441, "from_high_reference": -0.375453, "from_low_reference": 0.009592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.71588, "fair_value_reference": 4.478747, "structural_low": 4.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029662, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.040373, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.207422, "worst_return": -0.026786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.154291, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.129398, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.399424, "worst_return": -0.064103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.345067, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.238647, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.949771, "worst_return": -0.03107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 5.802926, "fair_value": 4.436027, "relative_strength": -20.698429, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.287908, "energy": 83.435222, "activity_lines": [ 5.283333, 5.485818, 5.709854, 5.775323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 7700100, "typical_volume": 3557260.0, "trend": 5.778497, "fair_value": 4.453253, "relative_strength": -20.033934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.781075, "energy": 87.679192, "activity_lines": [ 5.100667, 5.345455, 5.621651, 5.714489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 7106500, "typical_volume": 3676225.0, "trend": 5.759346, "fair_value": 4.468522, "relative_strength": -20.573209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.431949, "energy": 88.302762, "activity_lines": [ 4.989333, 5.232182, 5.542298, 5.657812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.21, "volume": 17732700, "typical_volume": 4326525.0, "trend": 5.71588, "fair_value": 4.478747, "relative_strength": -28.956335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.079084, "energy": 96.994995, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 5.011818, 5.399826, 5.557854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }