{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10e9e027-3d15-419c-8677-8fdbc73d4068", "symbol": "314A", "name": "iShares Gold ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.45, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.591, "architecture_energy": 46.438, "architecture_maturity": 52.736, "architecture_confidence": 68.609, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.34, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 14.56, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 43.53, "downward_expansion": 71.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 314.866669, 314.774546, 324.025714, 333.499354 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 321.100006, "trend_reference": 345.019998, "distance_from_trend": -0.069329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 284.59878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.700681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110773, "excess_performance": -0.320031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240784, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12641770, "relative_activity": 1.003893, "balance": 0.240784, "dry_up": 0.676061, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03718, "annualized_volatility": 0.213336, "from_high_reference": -0.208918, "from_low_reference": 0.383455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 345.019998, "fair_value_reference": 284.59878, "structural_low": 298.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024896, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 201.399994, "volume": 645220, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 208.0, "volume": 2464700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.06911, "energy": 64.524966, "activity_lines": [ 312.593335, 316.125454, 327.868094, 337.284084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 311.5, "volume": 7062430, "typical_volume": 12883072.0, "trend": 345.436665, "fair_value": 284.148148, "relative_strength": -17.838083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.462275, "energy": 60.716621, "activity_lines": [ 312.253335, 314.307272, 325.315237, 335.069461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 321.100006, "volume": 12641770, "typical_volume": 12592747.0, "trend": 345.019998, "fair_value": 284.59878, "relative_strength": -16.700681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.590926, "energy": 46.438311, "activity_lines": [ 314.866669, 314.774546, 324.025714, 333.499354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }