{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10ea0ffc-ef01-4353-9b46-0e5ca29588d1", "symbol": "600873", "name": "MeiHua Holdings Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.615, "architecture_energy": 45.697, "architecture_maturity": 94.929, "architecture_confidence": 91.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 20.5, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 38.82, "downward_expansion": 68.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.038066, 7.971594, 8.513127, 9.145324 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.88, "trend_reference": 9.83913, "distance_from_trend": -0.199116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.751758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.346429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284287, "excess_performance": -0.241083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145349950, "relative_activity": 1.026026, "balance": 0.664534, "dry_up": 1.013773, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081242, "annualized_volatility": 0.394763, "from_high_reference": -0.404834, "from_low_reference": 0.125258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.83913, "fair_value_reference": 9.751758, "structural_low": 7.002836, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009152, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.00232, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.165605, "worst_return": -0.131661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.086861, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.062763, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.141434, "worst_return": -0.027083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020371, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.18879, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015598, "worst_return": -0.172311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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8.130353, 8.931564, 9.512145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.25, "volume": 133503097, "typical_volume": 171880040.0, "trend": 9.98513, "fair_value": 9.754572, "relative_strength": -17.347986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.377085, "energy": 62.339081, "activity_lines": [ 7.918397, 8.088463, 8.788784, 9.396244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.13, "volume": 156416299, "typical_volume": 154202923.2, "trend": 9.91413, "fair_value": 9.754841, "relative_strength": -18.321794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.13011, "energy": 49.834737, "activity_lines": [ 8.05747, 8.039665, 8.651717, 9.276559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.88, "volume": 145349950, "typical_volume": 141663009.9, "trend": 9.83913, "fair_value": 9.751758, "relative_strength": -22.346429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.614608, "energy": 45.69702, "activity_lines": [ 8.038066, 7.971594, 8.513127, 9.145324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }