{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10eddb74-c56a-41bb-b7f0-6d236d086022", "symbol": "TOUR", "name": "Tuniu Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.639, "architecture_energy": 25.56, "architecture_maturity": 45.037, "architecture_confidence": 83.302, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.16, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 41.74, "rotation_down": 29.4, "downward_expansion": 60.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.06, 4.982091, 5.247056, 5.42915 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.12, "trend_reference": 5.581514, "distance_from_trend": -0.082686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.120278, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.303463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021642, "excess_performance": -0.209095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.509966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37658, "relative_activity": 0.16627, "balance": 1.509966, "dry_up": 0.106355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099483, "annualized_volatility": 0.41604, "from_high_reference": -0.38141, "from_low_reference": 0.130243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.581514, "fair_value_reference": 7.120278, "structural_low": 4.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.080481, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.735294, "median_excess_return": -0.084404, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 1.278391, "worst_return": -0.368821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.131919, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.157138, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.581223, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061994, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.299415, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.430556, "worst_return": -0.59322, "sufficient": true }, { 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5.028909, 5.406465, 5.541492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.1, "volume": 23329, "typical_volume": 272278.15, "trend": 5.6406, "fair_value": 7.205923, "relative_strength": -24.76367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.075562, "energy": 31.414351, "activity_lines": [ 5.008, 5.000091, 5.351707, 5.504477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.96, "volume": 23432, "typical_volume": 255623.2, "trend": 5.606975, "fair_value": 7.163631, "relative_strength": -26.571749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.869688, "energy": 28.799117, "activity_lines": [ 5.017667, 4.965273, 5.289749, 5.460567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.12, "volume": 37658, "typical_volume": 226486.85, "trend": 5.581514, "fair_value": 7.120278, "relative_strength": -27.303463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.639283, "energy": 25.560296, "activity_lines": [ 5.06, 4.982091, 5.247056, 5.42915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }