{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10ee7ff8-214e-4072-98fb-ab34dee6e7e3", "symbol": "PEU", "name": "Invesco EuroMTS Cash 3 Months UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.699, "architecture_energy": 85.387, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.516, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 77.09, "upward_expansion": 95.72, "deceleration": 42.8, "rotation_down": 18.68, "downward_expansion": 17.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.171667, 109.096818, 108.95269, 108.806344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 109.239998, "trend_reference": 108.599166, "distance_from_trend": 0.005901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.484808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.684514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010406, "excess_performance": -0.042906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1788, "relative_activity": 1.610448, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.218194, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000944, "annualized_volatility": 0.00122, "from_high_reference": -9.2e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.019886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.599166, "fair_value_reference": 105.484808, "structural_low": 108.114998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.002265, "positive_rate": 0.956522, "directional_follow_through": 0.956522, "median_excess_return": -0.000424, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.006003, "worst_return": -0.005214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006884, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009044, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00931, "worst_return": 0.004718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012455, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01811, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018546, "worst_return": 0.009576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 109.038334, 108.965, 108.819786, 108.675968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.144997, "volume": 6993, "typical_volume": 1353.05, "trend": 108.514167, "fair_value": 105.373269, "relative_strength": -2.285053, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.007436, "energy": 78.646037, "activity_lines": [ 109.083666, 109.008818, 108.864309, 108.719602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.175003, "volume": 835, "typical_volume": 1241.6, "trend": 108.556333, "fair_value": 105.429038, "relative_strength": -3.6476, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.698085, "energy": 72.339091, "activity_lines": [ 109.124001, 109.050545, 108.907476, 108.762236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.239998, "volume": 1788, "typical_volume": 1110.25, "trend": 108.599166, "fair_value": 105.484808, "relative_strength": -5.684514, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.698518, "energy": 85.387142, "activity_lines": [ 109.171667, 109.096818, 108.95269, 108.806344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }