{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10f15a82-b656-4e6b-bd11-c6d615f5c794", "symbol": "00875", "name": "Cathay Cyber Security ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.496, "architecture_energy": 73.079, "architecture_maturity": 56.66, "architecture_confidence": 73.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 72.93, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 62.98, "rotation_down": 19.32, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.797334, 51.445818, 48.607952, 46.084236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 55.650002, "trend_reference": 43.072333, "distance_from_trend": 0.292013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.092564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.541869, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.600639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.483209, "excess_performance": 0.103897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.292013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.541869, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.483209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 708559, "relative_activity": 0.844289, "balance": 4.221, "dry_up": 0.943644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047619, "annualized_volatility": 0.311813, "from_high_reference": -0.019383, "from_low_reference": 0.599598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.072333, "fair_value_reference": 36.092564, "structural_low": 34.790001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008952, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005422, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.129932, "worst_return": -0.141993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031727, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023847, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.157008, "worst_return": -0.150938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003504, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099082, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193716, "worst_return": -0.228937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -10.984732, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.241536, "energy": 72.921058, "activity_lines": [ 51.016666, 49.777272, 46.866762, 44.609527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 671061, "typical_volume": 847570.15, "trend": 42.506666, "fair_value": 35.917244, "relative_strength": -5.555787, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.557128, "energy": 66.937825, "activity_lines": [ 51.445333, 50.320909, 47.585476, 45.236279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.650002, "volume": 708559, "typical_volume": 839237.7, "trend": 43.072333, "fair_value": 36.092564, "relative_strength": -0.600639, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.4958, "energy": 73.078651, "activity_lines": [ 52.797334, 51.445818, 48.607952, 46.084236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }