{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10f1bc0c-fc16-4a85-928e-5d4291f7f4fc", "symbol": "603121", "name": "Shanghai Sinotec Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.581, "architecture_energy": 64.743, "architecture_maturity": 41.644, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 61.34, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.211333, 11.796545, 14.202238, 15.996 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.97, "trend_reference": 18.305, "distance_from_trend": -0.34608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.730096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.584611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.500417, "excess_performance": -0.457214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.75557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.500417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24661634, "relative_activity": 0.762013, "balance": 0.230996, "dry_up": 0.975079, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164193, "annualized_volatility": 0.69353, "from_high_reference": -0.547448, "from_low_reference": 0.26 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.305, "fair_value_reference": 13.730096, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001161, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.023267, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.540851, "worst_return": -0.252468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02719, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.677797, "worst_return": -0.179144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018018, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.577175, "worst_return": -0.129072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.597286, 18.10514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.6, "volume": 33079964, "typical_volume": 32802235.75, "trend": 19.379667, "fair_value": 13.677237, "relative_strength": -41.104506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.942288, "energy": 91.7218, "activity_lines": [ 11.846667, 13.27, 15.859762, 17.516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.2, "volume": 33725487, "typical_volume": 34488510.1, "trend": 18.959, "fair_value": 13.688128, "relative_strength": -43.142879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.991415, "energy": 89.92675, "activity_lines": [ 11.128667, 12.439818, 15.156048, 16.923763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.22, "volume": 34761909, "typical_volume": 33120243.3, "trend": 18.611333, "fair_value": 13.704687, "relative_strength": -36.869318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.592886, "energy": 81.73155, "activity_lines": [ 11.016, 11.986364, 14.623286, 16.424473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.97, "volume": 24661634, "typical_volume": 32363784.0, "trend": 18.305, "fair_value": 13.730096, "relative_strength": -33.584611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.580929, "energy": 64.743175, "activity_lines": [ 11.211333, 11.796545, 14.202238, 15.996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }