{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10f33b09-cc70-435f-9686-912ad1778520", "symbol": "PAVE", "name": "Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.634, "architecture_energy": 30.695, "architecture_maturity": 41.555, "architecture_confidence": 90.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.58, "rotation_up": 37.78, "upward_expansion": 61.95, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 24.92, "downward_expansion": 14.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.755999, 53.805636, 53.37169, 52.483924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.939999, "trend_reference": 51.380166, "distance_from_trend": 0.069284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.674263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.99488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078841, "excess_performance": 0.027606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061685, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.49318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183201, "relative_activity": 1.487095, "balance": 1.49318, "dry_up": 1.837264, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034653, "annualized_volatility": 0.184209, "from_high_reference": -0.022594, "from_low_reference": 0.455357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.380166, "fair_value_reference": 39.674263, "structural_low": 45.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001978, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070167, "worst_return": -0.071738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105762, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013455, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.135887, "worst_return": -0.079259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1259, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238053, "worst_return": 0.071024, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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53.189999, "volume": 203956, "typical_volume": 105582.15, "trend": 50.327417, "fair_value": 39.056202, "relative_strength": 6.073626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.493187, "energy": 49.332255, "activity_lines": [ 53.952667, 53.690909, 52.648786, 51.733683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.84, "volume": 52768, "typical_volume": 100499.0, "trend": 50.586417, "fair_value": 39.206474, "relative_strength": 4.228581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.329285, "energy": 33.217064, "activity_lines": [ 53.519333, 53.596909, 52.780976, 51.895785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.189999, "volume": 606622, "typical_volume": 123668.95, "trend": 50.87075, "fair_value": 39.364744, "relative_strength": 5.407285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.71249, "energy": 29.490325, "activity_lines": [ 53.613333, 53.754364, 53.034024, 52.128274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.549999, "volume": 62768, "typical_volume": 116991.0, "trend": 51.106666, "fair_value": 39.51125, "relative_strength": 0.873446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.55623, "energy": 19.819424, "activity_lines": [ 53.199333, 53.573818, 53.102619, 52.236613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.939999, "volume": 183201, "typical_volume": 123193.9, "trend": 51.380166, "fair_value": 39.674263, "relative_strength": 4.99488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.634302, "energy": 30.694866, "activity_lines": [ 53.755999, 53.805636, 53.37169, 52.483924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }