{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10fef5cc-3019-414c-b4a3-148fc57ae67f", "symbol": "CRIP34", "name": "Trip.com Group Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.345, "architecture_energy": 61.024, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.463, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 29.34, "upward_expansion": 11.15, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 52.7, "downward_expansion": 84.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 228.5, 229.535816, 236.774093, 245.09959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 235.199997, "trend_reference": 260.67, "distance_from_trend": -0.09771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 292.546784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.397236, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.216, "excess_performance": -0.158952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165759, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196026, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054193, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.16, "balance": 0.803279, "dry_up": 2.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034514, "annualized_volatility": 0.328534, "from_high_reference": -0.43814, "from_low_reference": 0.117764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 260.67, "fair_value_reference": 292.546784, "structural_low": 210.419998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00368, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.006227, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.348224, "worst_return": -0.355504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.095936, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.082869, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.32814, "worst_return": -0.170978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034737, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.126685, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.644778, "worst_return": -0.101094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -96.503051, "energy": 77.687849, "activity_lines": [ 230.515996, 235.303996, 244.812808, 257.566881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 217.139999, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 8.0, "trend": 278.146334, "fair_value": 291.801138, "relative_strength": -37.677229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.830184, "energy": 76.096594, "activity_lines": [ 224.779997, 231.098542, 241.557236, 253.234085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 217.360001, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 10.35, "trend": 272.001667, "fair_value": 292.037766, "relative_strength": -36.867702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.676829, "energy": 73.430794, "activity_lines": [ 220.753332, 227.844724, 238.555284, 249.312386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 238.050003, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 12.4, "trend": 266.546666, "fair_value": 292.329424, "relative_strength": -31.537188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.166302, "energy": 68.135005, "activity_lines": [ 225.068668, 228.975271, 237.741046, 247.121956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.199997, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 260.67, "fair_value": 292.546784, "relative_strength": -29.397236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.344548, "energy": 61.023681, "activity_lines": [ 228.5, 229.535816, 236.774093, 245.09959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }