{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11035188-6837-4bc4-a383-c2d931e463ac", "symbol": "KR", "name": "The Kroger Co.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.342, "architecture_energy": 53.768, "architecture_maturity": 21.705, "architecture_confidence": 82.225, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.47, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 7.52, "deceleration": 51.93, "rotation_down": 61.41, "downward_expansion": 80.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.135666, 50.852363, 52.71748, 54.439745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.66, "trend_reference": 55.789396, "distance_from_trend": -0.127791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.571695, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.228973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133275, "excess_performance": -0.307521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056459, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.245783, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.245783, "dry_up": 0.678909, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064141, "annualized_volatility": 0.326821, "from_high_reference": -0.258999, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.789396, "fair_value_reference": 51.571695, "structural_low": 48.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015218, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019519, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.137099, "worst_return": -0.053319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079218, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.092422, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.264966, "worst_return": -0.034919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.159342, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.100881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263711, "worst_return": 0.07507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"activity_lines": [ 51.845334, 52.854347, 55.052917, 55.905596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.259998, "volume": 535, "typical_volume": 556.25, "trend": 56.008857, "fair_value": 51.415612, "relative_strength": -22.985799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.536491, "energy": 57.405115, "activity_lines": [ 51.902666, 52.566545, 54.589448, 55.663011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.654999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 445.35, "trend": 55.924638, "fair_value": 51.471195, "relative_strength": -27.147862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.11382, "energy": 51.645449, "activity_lines": [ 51.305666, 51.871818, 53.901034, 55.253085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.509998, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 427.3, "trend": 55.852128, "fair_value": 51.527017, "relative_strength": -25.134013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.928484, "energy": 45.401489, "activity_lines": [ 51.016665, 51.465545, 53.361593, 54.903753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 417.95, "trend": 55.789396, "fair_value": 51.571695, "relative_strength": -29.228973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.342292, "energy": 53.768325, "activity_lines": [ 50.135666, 50.852363, 52.71748, 54.439745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }