{ "ticker": { "uuid": "110512b7-b4dc-4783-8989-ffc15304083b", "symbol": "ARC", "name": "ARC Funds Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.756, "architecture_energy": 37.537, "architecture_maturity": 73.77, "architecture_confidence": 85.716, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.25, "rotation_up": 23.88, "upward_expansion": 4.24, "deceleration": 59.14, "rotation_down": 46.23, "downward_expansion": 75.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071, 0.071655, 0.07179, 0.075004 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.082533, "distance_from_trend": -0.151858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.118756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.410558, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.930537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391304, "excess_performance": -0.45501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.410558, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034525, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.006919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 297628, "relative_activity": 0.946839, "balance": 0.006919, "dry_up": 0.456294, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073626, "annualized_volatility": 0.471534, "from_high_reference": -0.641026, "from_low_reference": 0.060606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.082533, "fair_value_reference": 0.118756, "structural_low": 0.066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.02995, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.394737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.114809, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.098729, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.215686, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.149701, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": 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"close": 0.075, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 940909.65, "trend": 0.087633, "fair_value": 0.123019, "relative_strength": -21.030831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.676193, "energy": 33.717938, "activity_lines": [ 0.072867, 0.072418, 0.07279, 0.078845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 937689.7, "trend": 0.086833, "fair_value": 0.121962, "relative_strength": -20.456004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.562002, "energy": 26.909197, "activity_lines": [ 0.0738, 0.072927, 0.07269, 0.07803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 250000, "typical_volume": 517230.8, "trend": 0.085867, "fair_value": 0.120936, "relative_strength": -24.995934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.607202, "energy": 22.7232, "activity_lines": [ 0.072733, 0.072491, 0.072281, 0.076944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 26095, "typical_volume": 357933.0, "trend": 0.0842, "fair_value": 0.119846, "relative_strength": -26.127207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.172732, "energy": 29.98057, "activity_lines": [ 0.072, 0.072073, 0.07201, 0.07592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 297628, "typical_volume": 314338.6, "trend": 0.082533, "fair_value": 0.118756, "relative_strength": -27.930537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.755936, "energy": 37.537026, "activity_lines": [ 0.071, 0.071655, 0.07179, 0.075004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }