{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11088e56-1bec-45ca-9b5b-fd58fe402a4d", "symbol": "DUKX", "name": "Ocean Park International ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.394, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.457, "architecture_energy": 25.878, "architecture_maturity": 43.42, "architecture_confidence": 75.885, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.4, "rotation_up": 39.08, "upward_expansion": 64.06, "deceleration": 85.71, "rotation_down": 29.79, "downward_expansion": 15.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.265387, 28.229147, 28.123642, 27.97044 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.9109, "trend_reference": 27.846327, "distance_from_trend": 0.03823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.982881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.455082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027611, "excess_performance": -0.159843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.423192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1379, "relative_activity": 0.609489, "balance": 1.423192, "dry_up": 0.902963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027042, "annualized_volatility": 0.176983, "from_high_reference": -0.013216, "from_low_reference": 0.211042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.846327, "fair_value_reference": 24.982881, "structural_low": 26.495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015764, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.002595, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.056111, "worst_return": -0.069663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029158, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029158, "worst_return": 0.029158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.022284, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098336, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022284, "worst_return": 0.022284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.837225, "energy": 13.316656, "activity_lines": [ 27.938607, 28.100441, 27.977918, 27.871945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.1098, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 2290.6, "trend": 27.776177, "fair_value": 24.946511, "relative_strength": -3.473497, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.100177, "energy": 14.412073, "activity_lines": [ 27.96898, 28.093028, 28.016122, 27.897233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9109, "volume": 1379, "typical_volume": 2262.55, "trend": 27.846327, "fair_value": 24.982881, "relative_strength": -5.455082, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.457218, "energy": 25.878423, "activity_lines": [ 28.265387, 28.229147, 28.123642, 27.97044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }