{ "ticker": { "uuid": "110e898a-26cc-4c6d-b26e-c05abf2bb01b", "symbol": "NBPE", "name": "NB Private Equity Partners Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.564, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.374, "architecture_energy": 50.793, "architecture_maturity": 4.248, "architecture_confidence": 48.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.74, "rotation_up": 63.71, "upward_expansion": 60.83, "deceleration": 21.64, "rotation_down": 18.99, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1468.34752, 1452.613649, 1433.900799, 1427.058302 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1476.0, "trend_reference": 1435.655582, "distance_from_trend": 0.028102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1533.923557, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.483971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01992, "excess_performance": -0.071156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025423, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.220463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356456, "relative_activity": 1.509879, "balance": 2.220463, "dry_up": 1.933542, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033601, "annualized_volatility": 0.173869, "from_high_reference": -0.097528, "from_low_reference": 0.147745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1435.655582, "fair_value_reference": 1533.923557, "structural_low": 1286.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.004892, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039295, "worst_return": -0.04908, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075881, "worst_return": -0.009203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00642, "worst_return": -0.05256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"down", "direction": -8.070696, "energy": 5.735105, "activity_lines": [ 1426.2406, 1425.714864, 1411.074926, 1422.197725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1436.0, "volume": 317764, "typical_volume": 220139.85, "trend": 1448.807148, "fair_value": 1535.955157, "relative_strength": -8.363793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.248634, "energy": 5.204348, "activity_lines": [ 1429.031153, 1428.730469, 1414.102823, 1420.981108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1460.0, "volume": 764794, "typical_volume": 244791.85, "trend": 1443.62338, "fair_value": 1535.329016, "relative_strength": -7.632237, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.499233, "energy": 9.943846, "activity_lines": [ 1439.498847, 1435.60062, 1419.387862, 1421.703228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1490.0, "volume": 386887, "typical_volume": 249239.4, "trend": 1439.372965, "fair_value": 1534.831177, "relative_strength": -6.608911, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.860877, "energy": 45.263652, "activity_lines": [ 1458.671, 1446.470771, 1427.453854, 1424.695268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1476.0, "volume": 356456, "typical_volume": 236082.45, "trend": 1435.655582, "fair_value": 1533.923557, "relative_strength": -7.483971, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.373706, "energy": 50.793266, "activity_lines": [ 1468.34752, 1452.613649, 1433.900799, 1427.058302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }