{ "ticker": { "uuid": "111fc7b9-d5b6-4900-954a-7c810e9d554a", "symbol": "600120", "name": "Zhejiang Orient Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.537, "architecture_energy": 27.021, "architecture_maturity": 97.292, "architecture_confidence": 75.587, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 37.98, "upward_expansion": 22.23, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 21.34, "downward_expansion": 56.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.035333, 4.851273, 4.917435, 5.16101 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.12, "trend_reference": 5.55706, "distance_from_trend": -0.07865, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.903023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.280523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208655, "excess_performance": -0.165452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07865, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042854, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887156, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192719359, "relative_activity": 0.955515, "balance": 0.887156, "dry_up": 1.423431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067389, "annualized_volatility": 0.30325, "from_high_reference": -0.335065, "from_low_reference": 0.174312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.55706, "fair_value_reference": 4.903023, "structural_low": 4.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.004091, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.186842, "worst_return": -0.162113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061015, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.030478, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.218563, "worst_return": -0.138987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076018, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042722, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.479042, "worst_return": 0.032178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 4.878129, "relative_strength": -14.074598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.094612, "energy": 50.862519, "activity_lines": [ 4.683333, 4.659482, 4.952747, 5.270959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 336697592, "typical_volume": 203164031.1, "trend": 5.621957, "fair_value": 4.88537, "relative_strength": -15.011676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.986595, "energy": 38.777454, "activity_lines": [ 4.762667, 4.683771, 4.914976, 5.21862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 259292301, "typical_volume": 203221804.05, "trend": 5.591008, "fair_value": 4.894793, "relative_strength": -8.877186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.772032, "energy": 29.452951, "activity_lines": [ 4.94, 4.776003, 4.91773, 5.191397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.12, "volume": 192719359, "typical_volume": 201691667.3, "trend": 5.55706, "fair_value": 4.903023, "relative_strength": -12.280523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.537346, "energy": 27.02147, "activity_lines": [ 5.035333, 4.851273, 4.917435, 5.16101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }