{ "ticker": { "uuid": "11235caa-ef42-4ff7-9535-d313dfb0ce22", "symbol": "MYPK3", "name": "Iochpe-Maxion S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.667, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.049, "architecture_energy": 12.131, "architecture_maturity": 17.498, "architecture_confidence": 84.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.39, "rotation_up": 29.68, "upward_expansion": 28.94, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 23.29, "downward_expansion": 41.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.425333, 9.346, 9.330667, 9.413634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.36, "trend_reference": 9.629333, "distance_from_trend": -0.02797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.169022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.760488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108571, "excess_performance": -0.051523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5861000, "relative_activity": 1.418272, "balance": 0.616168, "dry_up": 0.947878, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049967, "annualized_volatility": 0.280874, "from_high_reference": -0.332799, "from_low_reference": 0.0771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.629333, "fair_value_reference": 11.169022, "structural_low": 8.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.039036, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039515, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.08115, "worst_return": -0.156844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011549, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043981, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.142036, "worst_return": -0.219392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054031, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069923, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.170667, "worst_return": -0.117015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041469, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.180456, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172982, "worst_return": -0.238985, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -21.358334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.225173, "energy": 19.155104, "activity_lines": [ 9.234667, 9.190364, 9.305857, 9.479849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.35, "volume": 3394800, "typical_volume": 4610610.0, "trend": 9.679667, "fair_value": 11.239844, "relative_strength": -18.121421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.068587, "energy": 18.50581, "activity_lines": [ 9.270667, 9.215818, 9.301667, 9.456946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.24, "volume": 2917000, "typical_volume": 4313100.0, "trend": 9.652667, "fair_value": 11.218627, "relative_strength": -18.029276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.945027, "energy": 18.29462, "activity_lines": [ 9.256667, 9.228364, 9.292714, 9.428581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.71, "volume": 3495600, "typical_volume": 4135020.0, "trend": 9.649, "fair_value": 11.195528, "relative_strength": -14.477544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.594136, "energy": 11.196473, "activity_lines": [ 9.414, 9.324727, 9.329571, 9.43228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.36, "volume": 5861000, "typical_volume": 4132495.0, "trend": 9.629333, "fair_value": 11.169022, "relative_strength": -13.760488, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.04938, "energy": 12.131201, "activity_lines": [ 9.425333, 9.346, 9.330667, 9.413634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }