{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1124b2b4-55b3-4b1a-8ce6-493c9583d8af", "symbol": "PROT", "name": "Protector Forsikring ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.203, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.451, "architecture_energy": 13.394, "architecture_maturity": 17.533, "architecture_confidence": 46.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.75, "rotation_up": 45.4, "upward_expansion": 32.67, "deceleration": 35.98, "rotation_down": 22.29, "downward_expansion": 23.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 487.427637, 486.249414, 478.280187, 479.804163 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 488.0, "trend_reference": 485.724401, "distance_from_trend": 0.004685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 328.291991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.486482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.442838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050999, "excess_performance": -0.175993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.486482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035656, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246909, "relative_activity": 0.494312, "balance": 0.302607, "dry_up": 0.737261, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043839, "annualized_volatility": 0.293626, "from_high_reference": -0.102006, "from_low_reference": 0.151327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 485.724401, "fair_value_reference": 328.291991, "structural_low": 442.941272, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.053192, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.056159, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.121798, "worst_return": -0.012649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188774, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.178735, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.308764, "worst_return": 0.015791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.444989, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.35481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459969, "worst_return": 0.189084, 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"direction": -2.842866, "energy": 20.99212, "activity_lines": [ 488.201333, 476.89652, 474.439615, 479.91056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 489.399994, "volume": 649737, "typical_volume": 733342.55, "trend": 487.83173, "fair_value": 321.842886, "relative_strength": -7.217091, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.526914, "energy": 27.198155, "activity_lines": [ 490.328149, 480.320197, 475.492451, 479.977072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 478.600006, "volume": 355477, "typical_volume": 725756.1, "trend": 486.772382, "fair_value": 323.944338, "relative_strength": -11.084451, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.924797, "energy": 23.94734, "activity_lines": [ 487.623844, 481.40933, 475.61152, 479.381477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 491.600006, "volume": 220924, "typical_volume": 705934.4, "trend": 486.275987, "fair_value": 326.121001, "relative_strength": -8.760293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.093062, "energy": 20.83168, "activity_lines": [ 488.688737, 484.396645, 477.058731, 479.692937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 488.0, "volume": 246909, "typical_volume": 499499.9, "trend": 485.724401, "fair_value": 328.291991, "relative_strength": -9.442838, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.450862, "energy": 13.393627, "activity_lines": [ 487.427637, 486.249414, 478.280187, 479.804163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }