{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1127813d-6561-4e26-8415-dcc294bd9b9b", "symbol": "IRLAB-A", "name": "IRLAB Therapeutics AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.673, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.933, "architecture_energy": 14.695, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 49.294, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.77, "rotation_up": 35.53, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 49.67, "rotation_down": 17.01, "downward_expansion": 48.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.375733, 1.334051, 1.318585, 1.373941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.516, "trend_reference": 1.480293, "distance_from_trend": 0.024121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.823704, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.80623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.899727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095465, "excess_performance": -0.15696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.80623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.308799, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.91321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4695477, "relative_activity": 3.877838, "balance": 4.91321, "dry_up": 2.300072, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066675, "annualized_volatility": 0.415081, "from_high_reference": -0.536391, "from_low_reference": 0.295726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.480293, "fair_value_reference": 7.823704, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.041791, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.043064, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 1.101562, "worst_return": -0.484396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.167645, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.20071, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.954942, "worst_return": -0.480337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.44375, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.322174, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.841772, "worst_return": -0.694118, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 817337.3, "trend": 1.519493, "fair_value": 7.907845, "relative_strength": -42.716988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.474813, "energy": 23.248899, "activity_lines": [ 1.299733, 1.280698, 1.306916, 1.385678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.318, "volume": 4906248, "typical_volume": 1028667.05, "trend": 1.496427, "fair_value": 7.864627, "relative_strength": -40.040949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.63544, "energy": 19.944369, "activity_lines": [ 1.308, 1.28992, 1.302665, 1.372679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.516, "volume": 4695477, "typical_volume": 1210849.05, "trend": 1.480293, "fair_value": 7.823704, "relative_strength": -30.899727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.932593, "energy": 14.695187, "activity_lines": [ 1.375733, 1.334051, 1.318585, 1.373941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }