{ "ticker": { "uuid": "112fcec1-da2e-4bdc-81cb-d2a25b5343ca", "symbol": "603888", "name": "Xinhuanet Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.211, "architecture_energy": 27.842, "architecture_maturity": 67.396, "architecture_confidence": 83.571, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.69, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 15.01, "deceleration": 46.64, "rotation_down": 37.2, "downward_expansion": 65.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.213801, 16.051807, 16.538569, 17.184489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.860001, "trend_reference": 18.315586, "distance_from_trend": -0.079472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.030097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.061054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251103, "excess_performance": -0.207899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079472, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026479, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63126476, "relative_activity": 1.168342, "balance": 0.653436, "dry_up": 0.982789, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081168, "annualized_volatility": 0.313246, "from_high_reference": -0.405637, "from_low_reference": 0.129217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.315586, "fair_value_reference": 17.030097, "structural_low": 14.930696, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.016215, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004241, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.253508, "worst_return": -0.19841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018408, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000261, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.143569, "worst_return": -0.161645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047281, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.071834, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.127025, "worst_return": -0.076759, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062934, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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17.032948, 17.797694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.263889, "volume": 49856109, "typical_volume": 55996096.95, "trend": 18.417226, "fair_value": 17.124616, "relative_strength": -11.695941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.556919, "energy": 66.791013, "activity_lines": [ 15.600085, 16.025897, 16.805287, 17.589818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.35, "volume": 46026025, "typical_volume": 54106195.6, "trend": 18.35856, "fair_value": 17.094075, "relative_strength": -12.0872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.225057, "energy": 55.919754, "activity_lines": [ 15.449885, 15.830994, 16.612371, 17.391933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.620001, "volume": 53394880, "typical_volume": 53746318.5, "trend": 18.336825, "fair_value": 17.048657, "relative_strength": -5.06811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.562922, "energy": 41.120952, "activity_lines": [ 15.829542, 15.9139, 16.559037, 17.279768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.860001, "volume": 63126476, "typical_volume": 54030799.05, "trend": 18.315586, "fair_value": 17.030097, "relative_strength": -6.061054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.210763, "energy": 27.842487, "activity_lines": [ 16.213801, 16.051807, 16.538569, 17.184489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }