{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1136bd27-ffb1-47dc-b80d-8a8254595755", "symbol": "MGL", "name": "Mahanagar Gas Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.465, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.339, "architecture_energy": 17.252, "architecture_maturity": 22.716, "architecture_confidence": 85.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.93, "rotation_up": 25.79, "upward_expansion": 52.75, "deceleration": 88.75, "rotation_down": 32.82, "downward_expansion": 21.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1113.659985, 1122.358174, 1117.344761, 1105.366642 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1139.599976, "trend_reference": 1094.474559, "distance_from_trend": 0.04123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1264.249583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.010327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000882, "excess_performance": 0.042827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.433173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1131390, "relative_activity": 1.063824, "balance": 1.433173, "dry_up": 1.417718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057314, "annualized_volatility": 0.389986, "from_high_reference": -0.164308, "from_low_reference": 0.266222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1094.474559, "fair_value_reference": 1264.249583, "structural_low": 900.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.034104, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.020227, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.146189, "worst_return": -0.089826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039891, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011336, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.499273, "worst_return": -0.171965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048254, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026002, "regime_survival": 0.0, 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"relative_strength": -2.875873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.444275, "energy": 14.111371, "activity_lines": [ 1106.486678, 1119.427279, 1110.616674, 1100.954516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1112.199951, "volume": 3779501, "typical_volume": 1156962.75, "trend": 1091.407371, "fair_value": 1263.006216, "relative_strength": -1.931136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.942557, "energy": 16.270056, "activity_lines": [ 1103.42666, 1118.923633, 1112.859764, 1102.257442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1139.599976, "volume": 1131390, "typical_volume": 1063512.6, "trend": 1094.474559, "fair_value": 1264.249583, "relative_strength": -0.010327, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.338535, "energy": 17.252246, "activity_lines": [ 1113.659985, 1122.358174, 1117.344761, 1105.366642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }