{ "ticker": { "uuid": "113a6cfb-7d3d-474b-add7-21c56e3b0736", "symbol": "8222", "name": "Aero Win Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.645, "architecture_energy": 15.942, "architecture_maturity": 22.307, "architecture_confidence": 64.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.35, "rotation_up": 37.74, "upward_expansion": 37.76, "deceleration": 47.14, "rotation_down": 29.71, "downward_expansion": 14.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.646667, 38.476462, 37.554632, 37.31485 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 41.299999, "trend_reference": 37.617061, "distance_from_trend": 0.097906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.824421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.122287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073389, "excess_performance": -0.367983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15187, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.516066, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7730835, "relative_activity": 1.687081, "balance": 2.516066, "dry_up": 1.762077, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11074, "annualized_volatility": 0.533902, "from_high_reference": -0.311612, "from_low_reference": 0.260135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.617061, "fair_value_reference": 42.824421, "structural_low": 32.774254, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009895, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.023153, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.203509, "worst_return": -0.200704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010676, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.068495, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.556098, "worst_return": -0.152083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068884, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.979021, "worst_return": -0.2875, 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3943206.6, "trend": 37.885937, "fair_value": 43.002302, "relative_strength": -34.658223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.213576, "energy": 22.463383, "activity_lines": [ 39.011116, 37.914524, 37.067185, 37.216572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.849998, "volume": 5758702, "typical_volume": 4142861.7, "trend": 37.735589, "fair_value": 42.917979, "relative_strength": -37.866019, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.825126, "energy": 5.149281, "activity_lines": [ 38.020611, 37.669775, 36.995369, 37.085221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.650002, "volume": 3932953, "typical_volume": 4282947.8, "trend": 37.655158, "fair_value": 42.863234, "relative_strength": -35.228882, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.871428, "energy": 3.892914, "activity_lines": [ 37.501085, 37.755876, 37.102293, 37.079699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.299999, "volume": 7730835, "typical_volume": 4582372.35, "trend": 37.617061, "fair_value": 42.824421, "relative_strength": -30.122287, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.644932, "energy": 15.94166, "activity_lines": [ 38.646667, 38.476462, 37.554632, 37.31485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }