{ "ticker": { "uuid": "113bc05e-5ef5-4bf9-a59a-29bddf18cd3a", "symbol": "600386", "name": "Beijing Bashi Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.078, "architecture_energy": 52.475, "architecture_maturity": 91.753, "architecture_confidence": 92.384, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 25.76, "upward_expansion": 8.7, "deceleration": 60.62, "rotation_down": 52.81, "downward_expansion": 82.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.219333, 3.243091, 3.47319, 3.658495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.29, "trend_reference": 3.919, "distance_from_trend": -0.1605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.076846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.654639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.280088, "excess_performance": -0.236884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05479, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39072435, "relative_activity": 0.89014, "balance": 0.48138, "dry_up": 1.074502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083704, "annualized_volatility": 0.288919, "from_high_reference": -0.390741, "from_low_reference": 0.096667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.919, "fair_value_reference": 4.076846, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.022277, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.025198, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.234783, "worst_return": -0.189802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001518, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049928, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.300067, "worst_return": -0.235981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076276, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069025, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.238018, "worst_return": -0.277405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.823877, "energy": 79.040167, "activity_lines": [ 3.246667, 3.369818, 3.632619, 3.813849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.03, "volume": 54061223, "typical_volume": 43845015.8, "trend": 3.992333, "fair_value": 4.088629, "relative_strength": -26.722427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.844653, "energy": 68.126654, "activity_lines": [ 3.171333, 3.277636, 3.558381, 3.748688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.26, "volume": 48211187, "typical_volume": 44104396.65, "trend": 3.955667, "fair_value": 4.082672, "relative_strength": -20.862641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.192829, "energy": 58.917814, "activity_lines": [ 3.192667, 3.251455, 3.512095, 3.701441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.29, "volume": 39072435, "typical_volume": 43894683.1, "trend": 3.919, "fair_value": 4.076846, "relative_strength": -21.654639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.078345, "energy": 52.474659, "activity_lines": [ 3.219333, 3.243091, 3.47319, 3.658495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }